Sunday Sep 18
8:20 p.m. ET
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Brandon Anderson: We’ve backed a ton of underdogs in Week 2, but it’s time to chalk it up with our final bet of the week. And what’s chalkier than Aaron Rodgers at home? Take a look at a number of trends in our favour:
- Rodgers at home: 65-34-6 ATS (66%)
- Rodgers as home favorite: 60-33-3 ATS (65%)
- Rodgers at home prime time: 22-10-1 ATS (69%)
- Rodgers as the division favorite: 42-24 ATS (64%)
- Rodgers after a loss: 39-21-1 ATS (64%)
- Rodgers vs Bears: 20-7 ATS (74%)
Pick a trend, any trend, and it will tell you massively to support Rodgers and the Packers in a perfect spot against the Bears.
Chicago won last Sunday but rushed for 73 yards in 40 minutes before a handful of monsoon plays broke the Bears’ path. As for the Packers, they had a 75-yard TD by Christian Watson on their first play from scrimmage and were also stuffed at fourth-and-base; they did very well against a Vikings team that looks pretty good.
Plus, it’s the Packers and Bears and we’ve seen that movie thousands of times. Chicago is Rodgers’ most profitable opponent, the ATS, and I ranked Green Bay in the top three on offense and defense heading into the season, while Chicago was in the bottom two — that’s is a shift in all directions.
Need a few more trends to seal the deal? Teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 — like the Packers — are 40-25-2 ATS (62%) the next game over the past decade.
We get free value after a Packers loss, and Green Bay has been pretty good after a loss. Matt LaFleur is a perfect 9-0 and ATS after a loss in his career, covering at 10.1 ppg.
RELAX, Packers fans, you’ll be fine. There are only bears.
Charlie DiSturco: Cole Kmet’s Week 1 Bagel should be completely skipped. It was a monsoon in Chicago and overtaking was minimal. Even Darnell Mooney finished with just one reception and 8 yards.
The silver lining is that Kmet played the second most snaps of any receiving option for Justin Fields and he should be a big red-zone threat with Jimmy Graham no longer in the picture. In what should be a negative game scenario – the Bears are double-digit underdogs – Kmet is expected to travel a lot of roads.
Kmet finished the 2021 season strong, exceeding his goal by 27.5 receiving yards in five of his last seven games. He also finished just three yards out in one of those games, which was a blowout win for the Bears over the Giants.
The Packers defense should generate a ton of pressure on Fields, and Kmet can be the safety valve for the sophomore quarterback. With Mooney likely drawing Jaire Alexander, expect Kmet to get plenty of stares.
That number should be closer to 30 yards and I would expect numbers similar to how he finished last season, with more than five targets. Flip Kmet to get the job done in Green Bay and also consider his +500 anytime touchdown prop.
Chris Raybon: Rodgers is 20-7 (74%) against the Bears, 65-34-3 (66%) ATS at Lambeau Field and 39-21-1 (65%) after a loss. But it’s hard to give weight to those tendencies given its current supporting cast.
On top of that, betting on big favorites is not a profitable business.
According to our Action Labs data, the favorites by more than one score (8.5 or more) are 443-479-16 (48.0%) ATS since 2005, including 67-77-2 (46.5%) ATS during prime time.
With a -10 spread, we’re not getting any type of discount for the Packers’ reduced offensive production in Week 1. In fact, we’d be paying a premium because the Packers are in what looks like a rebound. (I screened it at Packers -8, and our PRO models have it Packers -7.7).
Playing less in this type of spot has always been much more profitable.
Week 2 subdivisions that opened 43 or higher (Packers-Bears opened 45.5) are 39-22 (64%) since 2005, including 25-10 (71%) when the total drops.
Primetime unders are also down more than a point from the open are 66-39 (63%) since 2015, below the closing line by an average of 2.8 points per game .
FanDuel Quickslip: less than 41.5 | Bet at 41