3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 3

3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 3

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from leveraging them directly in the betting market to measuring a player’s potential to produce in everyday fantasy football.

Here we will focus on using our projections and a host of other tools and simulations to help make money betting on player props. For this article, we use odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook to identify where value can be found this week.

The prop betting experience at FanDuel Sportsbook just got more fun. You can track your player’s props with real-time updates and easily place props in-game.

Each week I will bring separate articles on prop betting for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football and the Sunday Main Slate.

Notes: Betting lines and our throwing players may change after the publication of this article.

Kareem Hunt Anytime Landing (+185)

The Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers in a classic AFC North game.

Thursday Night Football brings a modest over/under of 38.5 points and a margin of 4.5 points in favor of the Browns. This game might be a little lousy considering there will be 20 MPH winds in Cleveland.

The Browns have an implied team total of 21.00 and should score some points on the board, so that’s where we want to look for a touchdown. Kareem Hunt is known to be timeshare with Nick Chubbbut there are still plenty of opportunities for Hunt.

Through two games this season, Hunt has a total of 30 touches and has played on 51.8% of the team’s offensive snaps. More importantly, Hunt has 6 of the team’s 16 red-zone run attempts and 2 of 7 red-zone targets. This means that 8 of his 30 total touches (26%) arrived in the scoring zone of the field. Not too bad for an “emergency running back”.

The Steelers come in with the 12th worst rush defense by our stats, putting Hunt in a favorable position to find the end zone.

Jacoby Brissett Under 192.5 passing yards (-114)

Then it’s time to take an under for Jacoby Brissett.

As noted above, there will be high winds in this game, a very important note for passing props. High winds impact the passing game, especially deep balls, which can limit a quarterback’s backhand passes. That’s a good start for this sub in a game that already has a very modest 38.5 points.

Cleveland comes in with a 45.32 percent passing game percentage this season, which is third-lowest in the league. That shouldn’t come as a shock at all – a team with its backup quarterback at the helm has turned to the rushing game more frequently.

The Steelers come in with the sixth-best passing defense, making it a tough test for Brissett, who is averaging just 188 passing yards per game. By our projections, Brissett will reach for 183.87 passing yards, reaching the shortest of his total.

Mitch Trubisky will throw an interception (-130)

Finally, an intercept prop for Mitch Trubisky.

It can be summed up simply – Trubisky is not a good quarterback and has proven during his career that he is very prone to interceptions.

To break this down further, Trubisky comes in with -6.20 expected net points (NEP) this season. It has a -0.08 Passing NEP rating per drop back and a pass rate of 37.33%. He’s not been a good quarterback this year and has a tough test ahead of him tonight.

The Browns’ defense is holding opposing quarterbacks to a 59.72 percent completion percentage, which is ninth-best in the league. They also have a team sack percentage of 7.69% which is 12th best in the league. The Browns have been known for their strong passing rush over the past few seasons, and they’re starting things the same way this year.

Pressure on quarterbacks leads to rushing passes, poor decisions and interceptions. According to our projections, Trubisky will throw 0.94 interceptions tonight.


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