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3 best bets for Thursday Night Football

Steelers vs. Browns Odds

Steelers odds +4.5
Brown odds -4.5
Moneyline +172 / -205
More less 37.5
Time Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV Amazon Prime Video
Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest NFL odds here.

After getting Bills vs. Rams in Week 1, then Chargers vs. Chiefs last week, don’t expect the same kind of offensive firepower in Steelers vs. Browns.

Mitchell Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett have been around the neighborhood, but they lack the MVP advantage we’ve seen in each of Thursday Night Football’s early games. What these QBs have are elite running backs and strong defenses to back them up.

Our best bets for this game are mainly based on these things: running the football and playing defense.

Check out our favorite picks for Steelers vs. Browns promise tonight.

NFL odds and picks

Take
Under 38
best book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Brandon Anderson: Lord, we have two talented and well-trained defenders. On the other: Mitchell Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett. Advantage, defense – even more so with 20-30 mph winds forecast and a chance of rain.

I’m tipping Pittsburgh +5 because of Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog and as a “just lost dog.” Additionally, Kevin Stefanski is 7-5 ATS (ATS) as a favorite and 1-11 ATS in divisional play.

There’s a best bet, and it’s the least. Feast your eyes on this long list of bottom-pointing trends:

  • Mike Tomlin under the road: 70-50-1 (58%)
  • Kevin Stefanski under with totals under 44: 6-2 (75%)
  • Mitch Trubisky under with totals under 43: 16-5 (76%)
  • September Unders since 2014 with totals 37-40: 15-8 (65%)
  • Under Thursday night with a total of 40 or less: 20-6-2 (77%)
  • Under Thursday night with totals 37-40: 18-3-1 (86%)
  • Unders in prime time so far this season: 6-1 (86%)

Showdowns and trends are pointing strongly to the underside, and bad weather is only exacerbating things. Catch him before he falls any further.

FanDuel Quickslip: less than 38.5


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Take
Under 38
best book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Simon Hunter: Brandon laid out all the trends that make the undercut here, so I’m going to get into the game.

I don’t trust either attack in general, and I don’t particularly trust either attack against a strong defensive unit. These teams are built the way you expect AFC South teams to be built. They direct the ball well and play solid defence.

The Steelers will miss TJ Watt, but they should still be able to pressure Jacoby Brissett when he returns. Cleveland also has a strong defensive line that will make life difficult for Mitch Trubisky.

Sit back tonight and watch the dots not sink.


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Take
Steelers +5
best book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Kody Malstrom: I’m not a trendsetter at all. All too often I see trends for very small sample sizes and little or no correlation. If there’s one trend I’ll always take to heart, it’s Mike Tomlin’s underdog spot. A “rah-rah” joke as some would say here at Action Network.

Tomlin is 46-23-2 ATS as an underdog and 16-7 ATS as a dog after a loss. Both reach 67% or more.

I’ll confidently take the Steelers at anything above +3.

The Browns come into this one after a devastating loss, one they had in the bag if not for Chubb who ran in for a touchdown instead of going down inbounds. Yes, the same guy who broke a long against the Texans only to then go out at one to secure the game. It always hurts.

Not only did Cleveland lose to the Jets, but it was pretty bad too. Jadeveon Clowney was seen limping late in the game, a massive loss to the Steelers’ weak offensive line.

It may be ugly, but without Clowney, we could see the Steelers offense find some life against limited pressure. Take the Steelers and the points in what will be an ugly, low-scoring slobberknocker.


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Take
Nick Chubb AT
best book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Sam Farley: There’s one man you need to back up to score a touchdown at all times, and that’s Nick Chubb. I know it’s not exactly the craziest bet, but at -105 I still think there’s value in backing it.

Nick Chubb is the first player in NFL history to amass 5,000 rushing yards averaging more than 5 yards per carry in his first 60 league games. It’s a throwback, a nod to the big backs of yesteryear.

Last Sunday, Chubb scored three touchdowns and had 113 yards from scrimmage. The third touchdown may have cost Cleveland the game, but it took an incredible defensive meltdown for the Jets to come back and win. If the Browns were 2-0, there would be a different narrative around the team. It was only slight margins that stopped that.

The Steelers allowed Damien Harris to rush for 71 yards and a touchdown last Sunday, with Joe Mixon rushing for 82 yards the previous week despite the Bengals’ terrible offensive line.

With the quality of the Browns’ running game, I’d be amazed if Chubb didn’t find the end zone on Thursday night. DraftKings has the best number at -105 on Wednesday night, but it’s also high at -190 at BetMGM. Be sure to shop around for the best number.


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