Why is the Clemson FSU soccer 2022 betting line down?

Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (5) tries to fend off Florida State defensive end Keir Thomas (4) during second quarter action on Saturday, October 19.  30, 2021 in Clemson, SC

Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (5) tries to fend off Florida State defensive end Keir Thomas (4) during second quarter action on Saturday, October 19. 30, 2021 in Clemson, SC

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Clemson football’s highest regular season AP Top 25 ranking coincidentally coincided with its tightest regular season point spread.

Despite reaching No. 4 places in this week’s poll after blowing Boston College down the road, the undefeated Tigers are favored by just 3.5 points in Saturday night’s game at unranked Florida State, according to the VegasInsider consensus line.

This 3.5 point spread from Wednesday morning is a notable change from the opening lines of a few major sportsbooks.

DraftKings had Clemson as a 6.5-point favorite against Florida State and Caesars had Clemson as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday afternoon.

According to ESPN Chalk Game Writer David Purdumhowever, this drop in the Clemson-FSU points spread likely has less to do with lingering unknowns (like a significant injury) and more to do with some strategic market adjustments.

Circa Sports – which Purdum has described as an industry leader among Las Vegas sportsbooks when it comes to nailing point spreads – opened with Clemson as the five-point favorite on Sunday. Circa now projects Clemson as a 3.5-point favorite against Florida State.

Major changes to the Caesars betting line (Clemson -7.5 to Clemson -3.5) and DraftKings betting line (Clemson -6.5 to Clemson -3.5) were an attempt to get closer to the line reflecting the Circa market after professional bettors poured big money into FSU will cover those first two sportsbooks, Purdum said.

“In this case – I haven’t spoken to anyone about this game – but just looking at the odds, I would suspect it was more down to disagreement between bettors,” Purdum told The State. “The (consensus) line came in at Clemson -3.5. That he goes from -5 to -3.5 is not that important because four is not that big of a margin of victory. is okay, but -5 to -3.5 isn’t a giant move.

Across 60 to 70 college football games each week, Purdum said there’s typically “at least one gap” between the sports betting opening lines that require a similar adjustment.

Last month, for example, Caesars placed Southern Cal as a 13.5-point favorite against Oregon State. Minutes later, as Purdum reported, Circa placed Southern Cal as a five-point favorite against Oregon State, prompting bettors to “(pounce) on the sidelines” in a bid for a profit. easy bets from Caesars.

Southern Cal closed as a 5.5-point favorite and ultimately won by three runs, failing to cover.

As for the influence of injuries? Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said this week that barring the unexpected in practice, he expects the Tigers (6-0, 4-0 ACC) to be “as close to full strength as we’ve probably been all year.”

Star defensive end Xavier Thomas returned to play last week against Boston College after missing Clemson’s first five games with a foot injury.

Swinney said Tuesday that defensive tackle Bryan Bresee (non-football medical condition), safety RJ Mickens (undisclosed), safety Tyler Venables (concussion) and defensive back Malcolm Greene (groin) were all cleared to play against FSU.

Starting cornerback Sheridan Jones remains “day to day” with a shoulder/neck stinger, according to Swinney, but has come close to playing in Clemson’s last two games.

Clemson’s most significant publicly disclosed injury now is running back Kobe Pace, who will miss approximately four weeks with a sprained ankle.

Clemson’s Trenton Simpson tackles Boston College quarterback Phil Jurkovec along the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, October 21. 8, 2022, in Boston. (AP Photo/Mark Stockwell) Mark Stockwell PA

“What happened was the bettors probably rushed to Caesars and bet Florida State +7.5…so that doesn’t necessarily indicate some sort of injury is involved,” Purdum said. “Although the betting market almost always knows if there is an injury before it is made public.”

Clemson closed as a 7.5-point favorite at the time. 21 Wake Forest and a 6.5 point favorite against then-No. 10 NC State, by Odds Shark.

Those are the Tigers’ two closest point spreads of the season before this week’s 3.5-point margin against Florida State (meaning Clemson needs to win by four or points to cover the spread).

Purdum said this week’s line also reflects sports betting’s “increased respect” for the state of Florida. The Seminoles were ranked No. 23 nationally after a 4-0 start, but have lost consecutive games to ranked teams Wake Forest and NC State by a combined 12 points.

“I think if we had looked at that line before the season, Clemson probably would have been a touchdown favorite,” Purdum said. “I think Florida State has surprised people. They’re still playing well. Even in their losses, they’ve been playing well.”

Clemson is 3-3 ATS this season and 2-1 ATS in road/neutral site games, while FSU is 4-2 ATS this season and 1- 2 ATS at home.

The Tigers are 7-3 ATS overall in their last 10 games against FSU. It’s also the seventh straight year that Clemson has been favored against FSU, but its lowest point spread as a favorite against FSU since 2011 (-1.5), per Odds Shark.

Next Clemson game

Who: No. 4 Clemson (6-0, 4-0 ACC) at Florida State (4-2, 2-2 ACC)

When: 7:30 p.m. Saturday

Where: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee


This story was originally published October 12, 2022 12:48 p.m.

Chapel Fowler profile picture

Chapel Fowler has covered Clemson football, among other topics, for The State since June 2022. He is a native of Denver, North Carolina, a 2020 UNC-Chapel Hill alumnus, and an avid basketball player. with previous stops at the Fayetteville (NC) Observer and Chatham (NC) News + Recording. His work has been honored by the Associated Press Sports Editors, the North Carolina Press Association, and the Associated College Press.


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