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Thursday Night Football Picks Prediction: Commanders vs Bears preview

Commanders vs. Bear odds

I’m sure when Jeff Bezos bought the rights to Thursday Night Football, Commanders vs. The bears were exactly what he had in mind.

All kidding aside, I will always enjoy having football on Thursday night, no matter how bad the game is. Let’s break this one down.

Bet the spread at FanDuel: Commanders +1 | Bear -1

Commanders vs. Bear correspondence analysis

Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show the stat match between Commanders and Bears:

Commanders vs. Bear DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA 30 18
Pass DVOA 28 15
cutting-edge DVOA 31 25
Overall DVOA 29 19
Pass DVOA 30 29
cutting-edge DVOA 20 6

When commanders have the ball

Commanders will be without WR Jahan Dotson, TE Logan Thomas and OT Samuel Cosmi for the second game in a row. All three together is a blow to this offense.

Washington is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Titans. He had the ball, lead and goal on the Tennessee 2-yard line in position for a touchdown in the fourth quarter, only for Carson Wentz to throw an interception.

Wentz is already in the hot seat and head coach Ron Rivera seems to be right there with him. A loss to the Bears could trigger major changes for Commanders 1-4.

The only bright spot on the Commanders offense is that rookie Brian Robinson Jr. returned to action, making his NFL debut with nine carries for 22 yards. I would expect him to be more involved in this game as Washington is likely relying on the run game against a Bears defense that ranks 25th in DVOA against the run.

When the bears have the ball

Justin Fields has been pressured on 45.7% of his backstops, which ranks him first in the NFL among 34 qualified QBs. Much of the blame can actually be placed on him. He had 3.06 seconds to throw on average, which is the second longest in the league.

Fields could face more pressure than usual on Thursday night against a Commanders defense that ranks fifth in pressure ratio. That means it’s not a good game for the second-year QB.

Here’s where Fields ranks in the NFL entering this game:

  • 31st in QB rankings
  • 31st in adjusted net yards per completion attempt
  • 29th in EPA per game (out of 32) against pressure

I expect the Bears offense to come through the running ability of David Montgomery and Fields in this game. The Bears have run the ball second overall on first downs in neutral situations this season, so you better believe they’ll be trying to establish the ground game as 1-point favorites.

The Commanders defense has been a passing funnel this season, ranking 29th in DVOA against the pass and sixth against the run. The Bears aren’t a team designed to take advantage, though, running the ball at such a high rate.

All signs point to this being an offensive fight. The Commanders are deprived of three key players and will likely rely on the ground game to avoid giving Wentz chances for costly mistakes, while Chicago likes to keep the ball on the ground.

Considering this should be a close game (it’s close to a pick’em on every level, after all), that makes it even more likely that we’re going to see a low-scoring, ugly back-and-forth game. , like the Colts-Broncos game last week.

For the total, however, 38 is kind of a dead zone. I’d be interested in backing the under if it goes up to 39. As of Wednesday night, 65% of the action has gone under, so I’m not sure we’ll see the full run up to that point.

I’ll definitely bet props for this game, though. Be sure to follow me in the Action app to get these picks before kickoff.

Skinny: Under 38

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