The Six Pack: Alabama vs.  Tennessee, Michigan vs.  Penn State among top college football picks in Week 7

The Six Pack: Alabama vs. Tennessee, Michigan vs. Penn State among top college football picks in Week 7

Last week was a real disaster. The only thing that kept me from going 0 for 6 this week was getting Kansas +7 before the line went to Kansas +6.5. That push in Kansas’ 38-31 loss to TCU was the only pick that didn’t end in a loss.

UCLA did a great job of holding off Utah’s pass rush. Maryland forced three straight turnovers against Purdue, but failed to get a single point from them and lost by two. I don’t know what happened at Pitt and Virginia Tech; the Panthers won the game total on their own. And the army? Well, I need to make some serious adjustments to my troop rating.

Then there was Florida State, who couldn’t hang on to beat NC State despite an injury to Wolfpack quarterback Devin Leary and a second-half pass attempt from substitute Jack Chambers.

It was a nightmarish performance and the worst week I’ve ever had in The Six Pack. I had 1-5 weeks, but never had a week without winning at least one bet. The good news? Last time I went 1-5 I followed it up with a 6-0 week, so let’s see if history will repeat itself. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

games of the week

Featured Game | Tennessee Volunteers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

No. 3 Alabama at No. 6 Tennessee: This is arguably Tennessee’s best chance to beat Alabama in a long time. Of course, seeing as Alabama has won 15 straight in this rivalry, most of them by around a billion points, that doesn’t mean much. But it’s true, and not just because we don’t know the status of Tide QB Bryce Young. If Young is out, Tennessee has a real chance of pulling off the upset, but even if he plays, that Vols offense is playing well enough that we can’t assume Alabama can call.

Regardless of who wins, however, I don’t expect the game to be as high as the total suggests. If Jalen Milroe starts Young again, the Tide will be more conservative on offense and run more. Even though Young is playing, we haven’t seen many explosive plays in Alabama’s passing game with him on the court. Meanwhile, as explosive as Tennessee’s offense is, it hasn’t faced a passing rush like the one it will see on Saturday. I won’t be surprised to see Tennessee lean more into the running game to try and slow it down. Alabama 35, Tennessee 27 | Less than 65.5

Featured game | Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn StateNittany Lions

No. 10 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan: I don’t know why the total for this game is so high. While that game went crazy in 2013 when Bill O’Brien’s Nittany Lions beat Brady Hoke’s Wolverines 43-40, the eight meetings since have averaged 46.13 points per game, and only two have gone north. of 52 points. This game probably won’t be much different from the ones that were.

Neither team has been tested, and I’m more confident in the defenses than the attacks from what I’ve seen. Michigan’s offense has been too dependent on big plays from Blake Corum, and an improved Penn State offensive line has yet to face such a good front. I can’t wait to watch this game to see how good these two teams are, but I don’t expect a shootout. Michigan 27, Penn State 21 | Less than 51.5

Lock of the week

Featured game | Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas Jayhawks

No. 19 Kansas to Oklahoma: I #BelieveInKansas, and dangit, Kansas believes in me. I have no idea what’s going on with this spread. Alright, I do; Kansas QB Jalon Daniels won’t play, and apparently none of the bettors watched Jason Bean last week. Bean replaced Daniels and threw for 262 yards and four touchdowns in just over half-work. And this, without a week of preparation. I have no doubt Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will have something cooked up for his offense with Bean at QB.

Oh, and have you seen the Oklahoma defense? There was a lot of focus on the Sooners missing Dillon Gabriel heading into last week’s game against Texas and not enough on defensive injuries. Well, there still isn’t because there’s no reason on Earth for you to trust this Oklahoma team to cover a nine-point gap right now – especially against a scoring capable offense like Kansas. Kansas 37, Oklahoma 33 | Kansas +9

Sub of the week

Featured game | Illinois Fighting Ilini vs. Minnesota Golden Gopher

Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois: Illinois held on to beat Iowa 9-6 last week to go 5-1 and crack the AP Top 25 for the first time in 11 years. It’s awesome. The problem for the Illini is that they lost starting QB Tommy Devito to an ankle injury and could be without receiver Isaiah Williams this week. Those are two big losses for an offense that didn’t really light her up.

Now, a team from Minnesota that should be ranked is coming to town for a crucial game in the Big Ten West, but the Gophers have their own injury problems. Star running back Mohamed Ibrahim missed the team’s loss to Purdue, although he could be back on Saturday. Even if he is, that Illinois defense has proven to be one of the best in the country — and Minnesota’s defense is pretty good itself. Chances are this game won’t be much different from last week’s Illinois-Iowa game. Minnesota 17, Illinois 10 | Under 39

Sucker bet of the week

Featured game | Florida State Seminoles vs. Clemson Tigers

No. 4 Clemson at Florida State: Am I lured into a trap here? Because I feel like I’ve been lured into a trap. For my life, I can’t understand why Clemson is only a 3.5-point favorite against Florida State. I understand the game is in Tallahassee, and I think the Seminoles are pretty good (remember: I took them to beat NC State last week, remember), but Clemson is a legit playoff team again. playoffs.

DJ Uiagalelei is playing well and the Tigers defense should pick up key players this weekend. I have this being closer to a seven-point game than a 3.5-point game, and I think Clemson is more likely to win by double figures than by three or less. Clemson 31, Florida State 23 | Clemson-3.5

Upset of the week

Featured game | Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers

LSU in Florida: There’s an interesting subplot in this game given that LSU let their backyard coach, Billy Napier, get Brian Kelly, while Napier ended up going to Florida. It’ll be fun to see how that plays out over the next few years, but when it comes to this weekend, there was an overreaction to LSU’s 40-13 loss to Tennessee last week.

Tennessee was the better team and deserved to win, but LSU missed the opening kickoff and trailed 7-0 before they could shine. Then a big punt return put Tennessee in place with another short field and the next thing you knew it was 14-0. The Tigers spent the entire game trying to get out of a hole and things got out of control. Maybe it will happen again, or maybe the Tigers will perform much better against a Florida team whose win over Utah doesn’t look as impressive as it did in Week 1. The Gators have also struggled against teams such as Kentucky, USF and Missouri. LSU 26, Florida 24 | USL (+118)

games of the week

0-1-1

5-7-1

-2.7

Lock of the week

0-1

3-4

-1.4

Globally

0-5-1

18-21-1

-3.97

What college football picks can you confidently make in Week 7, and which top-15 favorite will fall hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that’s brought in nearly $3,000 in profit over the past six-plus seasons — and find out.

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